JTWC已經在稍早針對99W發出TCFA，預報在未來24小時99W發展成為TC的機率甚高！
根據老J（JTWC）最新預報指出，99W未來移動方向將持續朝WNW前進，趨向南台灣...
預估自今晚至明天開始，99W的外圍環流會首先為花東地區帶來降雨，巴士海峽、台灣東南海域、台灣海峽南部及東沙島海域風浪將轉強，週末99W將為南台灣帶來不穩定的天氣。
強度上，99W過去6小時由850hpa渦度場分析稍有增強的跡象，但未來系統在進入巴士海峽後，可能受到呂宋地形影響其發展。
個人預估99W在巴士海峽發展為一個TS機率為中等。
＊＊以上訊息由個人參考氣象單位發布之資料後所作的預估，請多指教！
JTWC預報，以下：
WTPN21 PGTW 090930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 125.8E TO 21.1N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 090526Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 125.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
126.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 125.6E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH OVERALL CIRCULATION IS
BROAD, CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR 125E, JUST EAST
OF LUZON ISLAND, PHILIPPINES. RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
SURROUNDING WATERS INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
17 KNOTS, VERIFYING THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 18 TO 22 KNOTS NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090526Z AMSU-B IMAGE
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ON THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT 99W HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUFLOW DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100930Z.
//
NNNN
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本帖最後由 TYPHOON2009 於 2009-7-9 18:32 編輯 ]
