目前92W中心位在台灣東南方約700公里左右的海面上,未來預估將向西北西或西北朝台灣方向前進。
路徑上,未來24小時STR有稍微東退的跡象,因此92W再為來的路徑有逐漸偏向西北的趨勢。
強度上,SST、ULD、LLC大致良好,但850hpa渦度場顯示92W在在整合上稍微遲緩,導致92w在發展上不如預期中快速。
未來接近台灣時,以TS的強度機率最高!
以下,是JTWC的TCFA:
WTPN21 PGTW 120430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 126.8E TO 25.0N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 127.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF
MID-LEVEL TURNING, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 120104Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWS INDICATIONS OF CURVED INFLOW TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REFLECTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130430Z.//
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