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標題: 【北印】02A Bandu - 進入波斯灣 [打印本頁]

作者: Chan92111 時間: 2010-5-15 13:20 標題: 【北印】02A Bandu - 進入波斯灣

作者: ... 時間: 2010-5-16 19:06

好大一團雲...
也有些螺旋性了
20Kts

作者: Smile橘子 時間: 2010-5-16 20:02

這個系統螺旋性一開始就還不錯
對流也有爆發未來應該有機會升格

作者: 小鳴 時間: 2010-5-16 21:02

它雲系厚實又呈現圓形而且中心穩定也有旋渦狀,現在風速也在增強從15到20Kts了,而氣壓也降至1007百帕了,所以我推測93A將在3天內升為熱帶性低氣壓或氣旋

作者: 桑美 時間: 2010-5-16 22:42

其開始接近非洲
該區的擾動一向不好發展
EC亦預測它以散格子狀態接近

作者: Wayne 時間: 2010-5-16 23:24

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 60.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND A 160146Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THIS LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES THAT ARE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE VENTING YET ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR

JTWC的報告中指出目前93A的高層輻散相當不錯

只是風切卻也沒好到讓93A穩定增強的程度 (不過比起92B已經算是相當幸福)

目前JTWC評價為FAIR 風速也稍稍增強到25kts

能不能上GOOD就看他自己的造化了

作者: 桑美 時間: 2010-5-17 13:26

中心很密集
對流不錯
(有點像寶發...)

作者: ... 時間: 2010-5-17 18:34