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標題: 【預報】熱帶性低氣壓 92W TCFA [打印本頁]

作者: ben811018    時間: 2009-7-12 13:28     標題: 【預報】熱帶性低氣壓 92W TCFA

92W 國際命名 N/A  中文譯名 尚未命名
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中高層風場及水氣分布圖
中低層風場及紅外線雲圖
風切變及高層流線圖
850 hPa相對渦度場圖
低層輻合圖
高層輻散圖

風切變趨勢圖

作者: you82130    時間: 2009-7-12 13:51

92W中午11點位置北緯19。5度,東經126度附近,即高雄東南偏東約690公里,台北東南約770公里。


預估未來往西北西方向行徑,時速約14公里!近中心最高持續風力約每小時40公里。 垂直風切較弱,高空輻散佳。

((部分資料來自網路))
作者: TYPHOON2009    時間: 2009-7-12 14:17

目前92W中心位在台灣東南方約700公里左右的海面上,未來預估將向西北西或西北朝台灣方向前進。

路徑上,未來24小時STR有稍微東退的跡象,因此92W再為來的路徑有逐漸偏向西北的趨勢。

強度上,SST、ULD、LLC大致良好,但850hpa渦度場顯示92W在在整合上稍微遲緩,導致92w在發展上不如預期中快速。

未來接近台灣時,以TS的強度機率最高!

以下,是JTWC的TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 120430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 126.8E TO 25.0N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 127.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF
MID-LEVEL TURNING, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 120104Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWS INDICATIONS OF CURVED INFLOW TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REFLECTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130430Z.//
NNNN


作者: Wayne    時間: 2009-7-12 18:12

基測考完了

還是先來看看這隻突然冒出的92W

JTWC在下午發出92W的TCFA

不過實際上目前92W的結構並不好



整體結構看起來蠻散的

雖然結構散散的~不過92W的範圍到是相當大

目前92W附近的風切相當微弱

但是幅散區卻偏向在系統南方

而且鬆散的結構都是不利92W加強的因素

短期的路徑將以西北接近台灣

未來還是取決於高壓強弱

CWB的一週預報看起來是預估高壓較強的結果(我覺得不太可能= =)

我個人預估應該還是以TD強度推進台東一帶
作者: you82130    時間: 2009-7-13 16:41

06W目前中心氣壓995百帕


預估目前為熱帶性低氣壓上限,中心風速15公尺,距離輕度颱風不遠囉!






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