AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4N 134.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED.
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, LATEST OF WHICH, A 101715Z 85 GHZ TRMM
PASS, SHOWS A PROGRESSION OF DEEPENING CONVECTION, ENDING IN A HOOK
FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A SOUTHWEST SURGE INTO THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS. LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT KOROR, PALAU, OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WAS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12
TO 17 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB. DUE TO THE
RAPID DEEPENING AND ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
