AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N 113.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 525 NM WEST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY AT
MID-LEVEL. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW
IN THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON WITH A SMALL AREA
OF COUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF BRUNEI. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED WEST-EAST AT 20N WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN
VIEW OF THE STRONG VWS AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS POOR.
JTWC評為POOR了
螺旋性非常明顯
對流普通,東側對流較衰弱
但環流還算廣闊
今年第一炮擾動總算誕生了
(2010,01,18)
