THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N
148.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER AN ORGANIZING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 202014Z SSMI 37H MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED A DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LLCC WAS STARTING TO WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LLCC IS UNDER A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN ANTICYCLONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
LOW TO MODERATE (15 KNOTS) AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE/OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE DEVE-
LOPING DEEP CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
火星預測?
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本帖最後由 thisisitmj 於 2010-3-21 21:39 編輯 ]
