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(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 60.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND A 160146Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THIS LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES THAT ARE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE VENTING YET ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR
JTWC的報告中指出目前93A的高層輻散相當不錯
只是風切卻也沒好到讓93A穩定增強的程度 (不過比起92B已經算是相當幸福)
目前JTWC評價為FAIR 風速也稍稍增強到25kts
能不能上GOOD就看他自己的造化了
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