90W.20kts 32KM/H -1006mb -8.4N-146.7E.

樣子不錯，遠離陸地，環境好，發展機率大！

渦度有增加~垂直風切微弱~海水溫度高

西太目前的擾動雲系廣泛...

但環境十分良好，唯獨整合上需要花些時間...

估計還要再2∼3天才會有明顯的改善∼！

發展真是快~
已經被評定POOR了!

90W是下週的觀察重點

這麼快就變成「POOR」了呢！

過去3小時以來，氣旋式結構有增強了些...

北緯6度，東經150度附近的環境也很佳！

假使目前的情況再往後仍保持不變，預估將以略高於氣候平均值的速度發展...

如此一來，個人估計近幾日90W就會有所結果！！！






[ 本帖最後由 TYPHOON2009 於 2009-7-9 13:13 編輯 ]

JTWC最新一報：FAIR了！
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N
152.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES AND
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS UNDER THE CONVECTION HINTING AT A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW GIVING THE SYSTEM
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

發展得相當快啊！18小時内從沒有評級到FAIR，搞不好發展形成颱風得比99W更快

已經是「FAIR」了呀！！

很好很好XDD

拜當地大氣環境良好所賜，未來的幾天之內又有TC要生成嚕∼

NRL多頻微波顯示，低層結構正在快速組織發展∼

附送一張IR雲圖...



[ 本帖最後由 TYPHOON2009 於 2009-7-9 16:51 編輯 ]

預估：

未來２４小時發展為熱帶氣旋的機會為：６０
未來幾天內發展為颱風的機會為：６０

JTWC以對其解除FAIR級數，恐怕跟91W互相爭奪能量

92w和90w為POOR擾動
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9N 140.7E,  
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND  
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT CONSOLIDATING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION AND A  
101132Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20-KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS WRAPPING INTO A  
POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL  
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MINIMAL WIND SHEAR AS IT IS  
NEARING AN AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA  
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  
HOURS IS POOR.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N 130.8E,  
APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED  
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING, DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD MID-LEVEL  
TURNING. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SITUATED UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND  
IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER  
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[ 本帖最後由 cas98709 於 2009-7-11 06:58 編輯 ]