JTWC最新一報將其升格FAIR~
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
130.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD REGION OF MID-LEVEL TURNING EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
WITH NO WELL DEFINED CENTER. AN 111801Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTION AT THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A POINT SOURCE
LOCATED OVER THE AREA, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A
DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
西太一家親~
渦度
92W~
西半圓缺少對流活動，整個系統結構還要重整收緊~但整體螺旋性及渦度良好！附近垂直風切變微弱，高空輻散及低空輻合也還可以，但如果繼續快速西北西移的話恐怕發展機會不大了，甚至連06W也升不到
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本帖最後由 jeffreyjin10 於 2009-7-12 09:07 編輯 ]
