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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
137.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WEAK AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS,
BASED ON A 302035Z QUIKSCAT PASS, BUT HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
ORGANIZED, BROAD STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN THE PAST 4
HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, BUT
APPEARS TO BE GETTING SHEARED WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG WITH IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTLFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
恩恩!!JTWC終於升格FAIR了!!
相較於先前,93W確實開始逐步有了起色
中心附近對流開始爆發
對流較強部分仍在西側
螺旋性也逐漸明顯
LLCC逐漸架構中
渦度範圍廣泛但較狹長
整體感覺逐漸明朗
就看看93W往後發展是否有更驚人的表現吧!!
[ 本帖最後由 ty82119 於 2009-7-31 15:33 編輯 ]
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