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ABIO10 PGTW 171800MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZAUG2009//RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 83.4E,IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST OF DIEGOGARCIA. A 170410Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THEREIS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS, A MOREFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONGITS TRACK ARE WELL IN EXCESS OF 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVELPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVINGENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANTTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.FORECAST TEAM: ECHO//NNNN
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本帖最後由 conan_4869012 於 2009-8-18 16:21 編輯 ]
