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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9N 137.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 915 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN A
ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE WELL OVER 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FAIR.
JTWC升格為ＦＡＩＲ等級了
顯示出目前北方有個ＴＵＴＴ有助於９３Ｗ的幅散
且當前風切變又微弱
繼續觀察後續發展吧！！
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